The three-day BRICS summit is set to begin on Sunday in China’s southwestern city of Xiamen where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president Xi Jinping are likely to meet on the sidelines.
Although economic, security and other multilateral issues will figure in the annual meet of the five-member grouping, a probable one-on-one between Modi and Xi will be a focal point, especially after the protracted military standoff along the trijunction point in Doka La.
Their last bilateral meet was during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meet at Astana in June. They met informally at G20 in Germany the following month amid the border crisis.
What to expect at BRICS summit
Modi will arrive in China on 3 September and attend the BRICS restricted session and its plenary session on 4 September, External Affairs spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said.
He said the restricted session is expected to discuss the global economic situation, international economic governance, national security and development and international and regional issues.
Kumar said the plenary session will discuss the practical cooperation for common development, people-to-people exchanges, cultural cooperation and institution building. In the evening, the BRICS leaders will attend a cultural festival and an exhibition, followed by a meeting with the BRICS business council.
He said later four documents are expected to be signed at the summit — BRICS action agenda for economic and trade development, BRICS action agenda on innovative development, strategic framework for BRICS custom cooperation and MOU between BRICS business council and New Development Bank.
On the fourth evening, the BRICS leaders will be joined by leaders of the five guest countries for a welcome. The guest countries are Thailand, Mexico, Guinea, Egypt and Tajikistan.
On 5 September, there will be BRICS emerging markets-developing countries dialogue, which the spokesperson said is an opportunity for BRICS member countries to exchange views with the developing world and build broader partnership for development.
Issues like counter-terrorism and the global financial crisis will also come for up discussion.
The proposed BRICS rating agency will be one of the key issues at the 9th meet of the grouping, which will be chaired by Xi.
Kumar said the Prime Minister will leave for Myanmar on 5 September afternoon on the second leg of his visit.
China-India bilateral ties may overshadow India’s agenda at the summit
Experts opined that the recent face off may make for a soft spot in India-China relationship, prompting New Delhi to divert much of its attention in improving ties with Beijing.
“Since the (Doklam) dispute has been resolved, the Xiamen meeting (bilateral meet between Modi and Xi) will be a turning point,” Wang Dehua, an expert at one of China’s top think tanks the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told.
Wang, who was one of the Chinese experts threatening India with war during the standoff at Doklam, said “there was no reason for India and China to be hostile to each other”.
“I always advocate ‘Chindia’ which is integration of China and India. I think it is a turning point. If we work together, the world will listen to us,” Wang said.
The troops of India and China were locked in an over two-month standoff over stopping construction of a Chinese road by the Indian Army in Doklam, at the tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan.
The dispute, which had begun to threaten the success of the BRICS summit, was resolved on Monday.
“It’s good news that Modi is coming, but the reasons causing such kind of stand-offs increase strategic mistrust,” Hu Shisheng, director of the Institute of South and Southeast Asia and Oceania Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told.
Asked about the issues he expects that will figure in the meet, Hu said: They (Modi and Xi) should give a kind of signal that this standoff does not happen again.”
When questioned what if Modi raises India’s concerns over terrorism emanating from Pakistan, Hu said: “This is the time of recovery. They will meet in the general way to discuss bilateral issues.”
“It will take some time to recover from the damage,” he said referring to the face-off.
Besides this, the symbolism of the BRICS summit is far too important for China as well to allow hostilities with India take over the narrative. Beijing too an be expected to cut down on rhetoric and allow room for normalisation of ties. A report in The Indian Express states that the city of Xiamen, where the stage is set to host the summit, is a manifestation of sorts, for Xi’s achievements in domestic politics. “Experts on China, India ties point out that Xi takes a lot of pride in his stint in Xiamen — a city he personally took interest in transforming as vice mayor since as early as in 1985 — which is not very common for his otherwise reticent personality, the report added.
India unlikely to bring up Pakistan issue at BRICS summit
Improving ties after the recent face off is work in progress, however, any improvement in the situation would need constant trust building efforts as the memory from Doka La standoff is still raw.
In such a situation, it is unlikely that India will place undue emphasis on Pakistan at the multi-lateral summit as it remains one of the thorny issues between India and China. Even though, India dismissed the Chinese view that it should not raise concerns over Pakistan’s links with cross-border terrorism at the BRICS, it is unlikely that Modi would take it up explicitly at the summit to make matters worse with China.
“India attaches high importance to the role of BRICS that has begun a second decade of its partnership for progress and peace. BRICS has important contributions to make in addressing global challenges and upholding world peace and security,” Modi said.
Beijing too has ruled out discussion on India’s concerns over terrorism emanating from Pakistan at the summit.
Beijing’s Belt and Road project, whose key artery the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through a disputed Kashmir area claimed by India, is another sore point between the two nations.
The five-member bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa was formed in 2006. They comprise 42 percent of the world’s population, have 23 percent of global GDP and 17 percent share in world trade. The theme of the ninth BRICS summit is `Stronger Partnership for a Brighter Future’.
