MUMBAI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that conditions had become favourable for southwest monsoon over Kerala today, along with some parts of North-eastern states.
IMD also said that after onset, the southwest monsoon was expected to move swiftly to cover some more parts of south Arabian Sea, Maldives, Lakshadweep area, most parts of Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu and Bay of Bengal today itself.
In the first week of June, the met department said that overall rainfall activity was expected to be above normal over Northeast India and also Northern parts of the country including states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh due to good pre-monsoon showers.
The extreme southern Peninsular India is also expected to good pre-monsoon showers in June.
Monsoons reach Central and Northern parts of the country around late June-early July.
“During te second week of June, fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely to occur over Kerala, Karnataka, northeastern states and Andaman and Nicobar Islands,” IMD said.
It said a big reason for strong entry of southwest monsoon over India and its steady progression thereafter particularly in June is because of near normal sea-surface temperature over the Equator and also near normal Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The IMD in its first monsoon forecast released in April said that the rains this year is expected to be just normal at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) this year, giving rise to expectations of its favourable impact on farm output, rural demand and inflation.
The IMD attributed the projection to a weakening of El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) turning positive. Both factors are seen combining to boost the southwest monsoon, though doubts linger over the intensity of rain.
The IMD predicted a 38 per cent chance of near-normal showers. The forecast has a model error of five per cent.
The IMD, also said preliminary indications showed this year’s rains would be well distributed.
El Niño is a warming of sea surface temperature along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while in the IOD sea surface temperature in the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and cooler than the eastern part.
The monsoon is considered normal if rainfall during the June-September season is 96-104 per cent of the LPA, the average seasonal rainfall in the country in the last 50 years, estimated at 89 cm.
Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 per cent.
